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Cover art for The Black Swan
Published
Penguin, June 2008
ISBN
9780141034591
Format
Softcover, 480 pages
Dimensions
19.8cm × 12.9cm × 2.7cm

The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable

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A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics: it's unpredictable; carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Taleb reveals that we are hard-wired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'.

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